The welterweight division rarely stands still, but after UFC Fight Night in Perth, it feels like it has been shaken rather than shifted.
In the main event at RAC Arena in Perth, Carlos Prates didn’t just defeat Jack Della Maddalena, he dismantled him. Over three rounds, Prates systematically broke down the hometown favourite with leg kicks, knees, and sharp combinations before forcing a stoppage midway through the third round.
It was the kind of performance that doesn’t just win fights but changes narratives.
Though even after a statement victory like that, the road to a title shot still isn’t straightforward for the Brazilian.
The Performance That Changed Everything
What made Prates’ win so significant was not simply the result, but the manner in which it unfolded.
He entered hostile territory and controlled the fight from start to finish. Early on, he targeted Della Maddalena’s lead leg, gradually taking away his movement and limiting his ability to establish rhythm. As the fight progressed, the damage accumulated, cuts opened, knockdowns followed, and by the third round, the outcome felt inevitable.
By the time the referee stepped in, Prates had not only secured another stoppage victory but had done so in a way that reinforced his identity as one of the most dangerous finishers in the division. His recent run now places him firmly among the most in-form fighters at welterweight.
The Case for a Title Shot
On paper, Prates has built one of the strongest recent résumés in the division.
Victories over elite names, including former champion Leon Edwards, now combined with his latest win over former champion Jack Della Maddalena, give him a compelling argument. What strengthens that case further is the consistency of his finishes. He is not edging past opponents; he is stopping them in convincing fashion.
There is also the undeniable momentum factor. Fighters who produce decisive, highlight-reel performances tend to force their way into contention, and Prates has done exactly that. His rise has not been gradual; it has been emphatic.
The Ian Machado Garry Problem
And yet, the argument is not without complication.
Ian Machado Garry remains directly ahead in the pecking order, and crucially, he holds a win over Prates from April last year.
The Irishman has stated he’ll happily have the rematch if he defeats the champion; however, this tweet is Garry’s way of saying he deserves the championship opportunity ahead of Prates.
The previous result matters. It was not a controversial decision or a narrow escape; it was a clear, tactically sound performance in which Garry used movement and discipline to neutralise Prates’ strengths. He denied him the chaotic exchanges where he thrives and imposed a controlled, measured fight.
Since then, Garry has continued to position himself as one of the division’s most credible contenders, beating former Welterweight champion Belal Muhammad by unanimous decision in November. While his style may lack the explosive finishes of Prates, his consistency and ability to execute a game plan cannot be ignored.
This creates a fundamental tension between two competing ideas: momentum and merit.
Merit vs Momentum
If the division is judged strictly on sporting merit, Garry’s head-to-head victory should keep him ahead. That has long been one of the clearest metrics in determining contention.
However, Prates’ recent form complicates that logic. He looks like an improved fighter: more composed, more efficient, and more dangerous. The version of him competing today appears far more complete than the one who lost to Garry.
This raises a difficult question: how much weight should be given to past results when a fighter is clearly evolving?
The answer often depends on what the promotion values most at that moment. If consistency and rankings take priority, Garry remains the logical choice. If impact, excitement, and trajectory are emphasised, Prates becomes increasingly difficult to overlook.
The Makhachev Problem
Regardless of who gets the opportunity, the challenge posed by Islam Makhachev is immense.
Makhachev’s style presents one of the most complex issues in MMA. His ability to close distance, initiate grappling exchanges, and maintain suffocating control is designed to neutralise precisely the kind of striking threat that Prates represents.
For Prates, this is a particularly difficult match-up.
His success is built on space and timing, on creating moments where his striking can take effect. Makhachev’s approach removes that space, forcing opponents into positions where striking becomes secondary to survival.
To stand a realistic chance, Prates would need to demonstrate a level of defensive grappling that has not yet been fully tested against elite wrestlers. Della Maddalena, who isn’t an elite grappler, was forced to try and wrestle in round one on Saturday and was able to easily gain a takedown. That’s a worrying sign for Prates, who would need to defend takedowns consistently, remain composed under pressure, and capitalise immediately on any openings in striking exchanges.
It is not impossible, but it would require a near-perfect performance.
What Should Happen Next?
From a purely competitive standpoint, the clearest path forward is straightforward.
Garry fights for the title, based on his position and prior victory over Prates. Meanwhile, Prates faces another top contender, ideally one with a strong grappling base, to answer the remaining questions about his readiness. Or, the Brazilian can wait in the wings until it’s his turn, a move that has not worked for many a fighter in the past, especially one this competitive.
So, if Prates wants to stay active and ready for the possibility of facing Islam Makhachev, such a scenario, where he trumps a Belal Muhammad, Michael Morales or Sean Brady would not only clarify the division but also strengthen Prates’ claim beyond dispute if he were to win.
However, momentum has a way of accelerating timelines. Performances like the one in Perth do not go unnoticed, and Prates has positioned himself as a fighter who demands attention, and it could be a case of Prates being the backup fighter for a potential Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry fight in the near future.
Final Thoughts
Carlos Prates has done almost everything right. He has delivered emphatic victories, performed under pressure, and built a surge of momentum that few can match.
But in Ian Machado Garry, he faces a complication that cannot easily be overlooked, a recent, decisive loss that still carries weight.
As for Islam Makhachev, the challenge remains the same regardless of opponent. He is not simply a champion; he is a stylistic barrier that demands the complete performance to top.
Prates may well be close to a title shot.
But proving he is ready to take it, and to succeed when he gets there, is an entirely different challenge.
TheWrestlingFallacy 
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