The card of the year is finally upon us. Two massive title fights, a number one contender’s fight and much more. I cannot wait for Saturday but first, let’s get into the breakdowns.
Katlyn Chookagian vs Manon Fiorot – Women’s Flyweight Division
We have the great defender of the Flyweight division, Katlyn Chookagian vs the next big star, Manon Fiorot.
Chookagian’s game is pretty recognisable by now. She simply finds a way to outscore her opponent. By either using her excellent jab with her expert judgement of range or an unexpected takedown or two, she’ll pick at an opponent for 15 minutes to grab a decision win. Fiorot poses a massive threat, however. She’s a brilliant striker who uses her sidekick expertly to judge distance at the start of the fight. She’s brilliant at going in and out of the fire and avoiding damage. She has brilliant takedown defence and has shown she’s willing to go to the ground with anyone. I think range will be the most important thing about this fight. Both women are used to fighting smaller opposition and I wonder how each will fair facing off someone similar to them in size and somatotype. Another really close fight, I like the talent of Manon Fiorot but Chookagian always seems to find a way to win. I’m going with Manon, I think she causes a lot of problems for Katlyn.
Prediction: Manon Fiorot
Beneil Dariush vs Mateusz Gamrot – Lightweight Division
We’ve got a grappler vs grappler fight in the Lightweight Division. Both of these men have lots of experience on the ground and I think they might cancel each other out, leaving it to be a striking match, in which I’d back Gamrot. However, Beneil has really impressed me over the last four years and I think it’s possible for him to sneak a submission with his brilliant BJJ. This is a really close fight and we’ve seen Beneil pull off some of the wildest KOs in MMA and I think he might strike gold again. I’m going with the underdog.
Prediction: Beneil Dariush by TKO in round 2
Petr Yan vs Sean O’Malley – Bantamweight Division
If there’s a fight in the Bantamweight division that favours Sean O’Malley the most, it’s this fight. Boxer vs Boxer, even though we know Yan likes to mix in takedowns here and there, his plan the majority of the time is to piece you apart on the feet. If Yan does mix in takedowns, he has to make sure O’Malley doesn’t catch him on the way in with an uppercut or knee. O’Malley simply needs to keep his range and not get caught exchanging with the Russian. Some of Petr’s best work comes inside the pocket of his opponent with shots to the body in the clinch or coming high as he exits. This fight is going to be legendary and to put the cherry on top, Dana White has announced that the winner of this fight will fight the winner of the co-main event. I think this fight will be close, but ground control time for Yan might just give him the edge in a decision win.
Prediction: Petr Yan by decision
Aljamain Sterling (c) vs TJ Dillashaw – Bantamweight Championship
Onto the co-main, where this match actually intrigues me a lot. Aljamain Sterling looked terrific in his rematch against Petr Yan at UFC 273 and TJ Dillashaw since coming back from his ban has looked like he never missed a step. I think Aljo will come out with his high-output striking at first. With teeps, the body and jabs, helping him judge the distance so he can shoot for a takedown. However, TJ does have the experience at hand to scramble or avoid the takedown if he needs to. If the fight stays on the feet for the majority of three rounds. TJ wins. Aljo needs to find a way to get the back of TJ, which should be more difficult than Petr. I think this fight stylistically favours TJ. So I’m taking him by decision.
Prediction: TJ Dillashaw by decision
Charles Oliveira vs Islam Makhachev – Lightweight Championship
I cannot wait! I’ve been playing this fight out in my head for months and I still don’t know which one will happen. I think the best question to start with is, will Islam shoot for a takedown, despite Charles’s BJJ. The answer is yes. I think Islam can take a lot from round one of Oliveira vs Chandler where Chandler was able to control the wrists of Oliveira and throw elbows from full guard and Charles didn’t have much of an answer for him. We haven’t seen it happen for a long time but Charles used to struggle against pure wrestlers, like Paul Felder. On the other hand, if Charles is able to keep Islam on his feet, he has a substantial advantage. Technically, he’s much better than Islam and can rock him if Islam isn’t careful. I think Islam may worry about this and be more conservative with his approach to the fight. There’s also the possibility of Charles taking Islam down, which is definitely the least likely of the options but also makes sense if you’re Oliveira. Charles is brilliant from top position and if he’s able to get a body triangle around Islam, I don’t see him letting it go. I think this would also provide a test for Islam to see how good he is off his back. There are so many possible outcomes for this fight but I see more than one method of victory for Charles, I’m taking him by TKO midway through the fight.
Prediction: Charles Oliveira by TKO in round 3
Prelims
- Karol Rosa vs Lina Lansberg – Karol Rosa by decision
- Muhammad Mokaev vs Malcolm Gordon – Muhammad Mokaev by round one submission
- Armen Petrosyan vs AJ Dobson – Armen Petrosyan by TKO in round two
- Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs Gadzhi Omargadzhiev – Abubakar Nurmagomedov by decision
- Zubaira Tukhugov vs Lucas Almeida – Lucas Almeida by decision
- Volkan Oezdemir vs Nikita Krylov – Volkan Oezdemir by TKO in round 2
- Makhmud Muradov vs Caio Barrahlo – Caio Borralho by submission in round 3
- Belal Muhammad vs Sean Brady – Sean Brady by decision
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