Smoothie King Center, New Orleans – Saturday 19 July 2025 (Sun 20 July BST)
🥊 Main Event – BMF Lightweight Title
Max Holloway (26‑8) vs Dustin Poirier (30‑9)
Overview: The trilogy closes 13 years after their first meeting. Holloway brings relentless volume and a five‑inch height advantage; Poirier counters with heavier hands, a four‑inch reach edge and the home‑state roar in what he says is his final walk‑out.
Key Dynamics:
- Distance management – Holloway’s stick‑and‑move jab against Poirier’s south‑paw counter left.
- Body work – Poirier habitually digs to the ribs; Max must protect mid‑section to preserve cardio.
- Clinch exits – Both excel there, but Poirier’s guillotine lurks if Holloway shoots late.
Prediction Edge: If Holloway keeps it at range he can out‑touch Poirier over five; one clean Dustin counter could flip the script. Lean Holloway by close decision.
🥊 Co‑Main – Middleweight
Paulo Costa (14‑4) vs Roman Kopylov (14‑3)
Overview: Two knock‑out merchants meet after a year of social‑media sniping and a cancelled UFC 317 date. Costa is the belt‑tested bruiser; Kopylov rides a 4‑1 tear with three KOs.
Technical Notes:
- Costa presses forward behind calf‑kicks and body hooks; Kopylov prefers long south‑paw kicks and 1‑2’s.
- Kopylov (+3 in reach) is more varied; Costa’s low stance is open to head‑kicks.
Likely Path: Early chaos. If Costa can bully inside and rip the body he wins; otherwise the Russian’s footwork and counter kicks can pick him apart. Slight value on Kopylov via late TKO.
🥊 Welterweight Feature
Kevin Holland (28‑13) vs Daniel Rodriguez (19‑5)
Storyline: Holland is 3‑1 this year, oozing confidence after subbing Luque; Rodriguez returns two months on from starching Ponzinibbio.
Match‑up Keys:
- Reach gulf – Holland’s 81‑inch span lets him intercept the shorter south‑paw.
- Mat danger – Holland owns twice as many career submissions; D‑Rod must stay upright.
Call: Expect a scrappy kick‑boxing duel until Holland changes levels and snags a choke – Holland R2 submission.
🥊 Featherweight
Dan Ige (19‑9) vs Patricio “Pitbull” Freire (36‑8)
Talking Points: Pitbull’s second UFC appearance comes against a granite‑chinned Hawaiian fresh off a Woodson KO.
Tactics: Ige’s jab‑overhand combo versus Pitbull’s low‑kick & counter‑hook game; grappling edge tilts to Pitbull (12 subs).
Forecast: Ige’s pace and six‑inch reach may nick early rounds, but Pitbull’s calf‑kicks slow him for a tight split decision – Pitbull squeaks it.
🥊 Lightweight
Michael Johnson (24‑19) vs Daniel Zellhuber (15‑2)
Angle: Veteran hand‑speed against the 26‑year‑old 6‑ft‑1 “Golden Boy”.
Edges: Johnson lands faster, yet fades; Zellhuber owns a seven‑inch reach and 94 % takedown defence.
Outcome: Youth wins – Zellhuber by high‑volume UD after a nervy first.
🔥 Key Prelims
Marvin Vettori (19‑8‑1) vs Brendan Allen (24‑7) – Middleweight
Genuine bad blood after a casino scuffle; Vettori’s pressure wrestling v Allen’s slick back‑takes. This will most likely see the judges.
Kyler Phillips (12‑3) vs Vinicius Oliveira (22‑3) – Bantamweight
Phillips moves well laterally but must mind Oliveira’s 73 % KO rate and flying knees. Phillips edges a decision if he wrestles early
Adam Fugitt (10‑4) vs Islam Dulatov (11‑1) – Welterweight
Dulatov’s 7 KOs in R1 suggest blitz danger; Fugitt amenable to being hit but carries top‑side grappling. Dulatov via R1 TKO
Francisco Prado vs Nikolay Veretennikov – Welterweight
Wild brawler (Prado) versus tidy Kazakh striker; whoever mixes takedowns wins. Veretennikov decision
Ateba Abega Gautier vs Robert Valentin – Middleweight Two Contender‑Series grads, both finishers; tiny cage in New Orleans helps Gautier’s clinch elbows. Gautier KO
Jimmy Crute vs Marcin Prachnio – Light‑Heavyweight
Crute’s leg‑locks against Prachnio’s karate blitz; durability favours the Aussie. Crute sub R2
Ryan Spann vs Łukasz Brzeski – Heavy catch‑weight
Spann jumps up, banking on speed versus Brzeski’s size; if Spann secures the neck, it ends. Spann submits him in R1
Brunno Ferreira vs Jackson McVey –Middleweight
“The Hulk” Ferreira hurls bombs; McVey counters with rangy kicks but questionable chin. Ferreira KO R1
Carli Judice vs Nicolle Caliari– Women’s Flyweight
Louisiana’s own Judice is a pace merchant; Caliari the cleaner boxer but less active. Judice by decision is my pick
📺 UK Viewing Notes
Early prelims from 23:00 BST, prelims 01:00 BST, main card 03:00 BST on TNT Sports 1.
Bottom line: UFC 318 offers far more than Poirier’s farewell. Every tier of the card pits proven finishers against form prospects, with stylistic contrasts that virtually guarantee movement in five weight classes.
TheWrestlingFallacy 
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