This weekend at UFC 310, fight fans will be treated to a pivotal welterweight clash as rising stars Ian Garry and Shavkat Rakhmonov face off in a five-round number-one contender bout. The stakes couldn’t be higher, with the winner securing a shot at reigning champion Belal Muhammad, who is expected to return from injury next year. Both fighters bring immense skill sets and momentum into the Octagon, setting the stage for an electrifying contest. Here’s an in-depth breakdown of their previous performances, strengths, and how they might match up stylistically.
Ian Garry: The “Future” is Here
Record & Background
Nicknamed “The Future,” Ian Garry has quickly become one of the most talked-about prospects in MMA. Boasting an undefeated record, Garry has shown a knack for staying composed under pressure while dismantling opponents with surgical precision. His background in striking, complemented by his ability to adapt during fights, makes him a threat to anyone in the welterweight division.
Recent Fights
- Win vs Michael Page (UFC 303): Win vs Michael Page (UFC 303): Garry outpointed the flashy Michael Page in a three-round striking chess match in his biggest test to date. Garry’s disciplined approach and sharp counters neutralised Page’s unorthodox style, earning him a unanimous decision victory and cementing his status as an elite welterweight.
- Win vs Neil Magny (UFC 292): Garry delivered a masterclass against the durable Neil Magny, utilising leg kicks and range management to dominate all three rounds. He showcased his ability to neutralise a veteran’s game plan, systematically breaking Magny down without taking significant damage.
- Win vs. Daniel Rodriguez (UFC Fight Night): Garry displayed his finishing ability in this fight, stopping Rodriguez with a head kick in the first round. This victory underscored his precision striking and killer instinct, which will be critical against Rakhmonov.
- Win vs. Gabe Green (UFC 276): A decision victory where Garry showcased his cardio and volume striking, keeping a relentless pace and outworking his opponent.
Strengths
- Elite Striking: Garry’s technical kickboxing is his greatest asset. He uses a diverse array of strikes, including leg and head kicks, emphasising distance control.
- Fight IQ: He makes excellent adjustments mid-fight, exploiting openings and staying one step ahead of his opponents.
- Cardio & Composure: Garry rarely appears flustered, even when fights go the distance. His cardio allows him to maintain his pace without losing power or precision.
Shavkat Rakhmonov: The Silent Assassin
Record & Background
Shavkat Rakhmonov, who hails from Kazakhstan, enters this fight with a perfect record and an incredible 100% finish rate. He is known for his well-rounded skill set, seamlessly blending grappling and striking. While his demeanour is quiet and reserved, his performances in the cage speak volumes about his abilities.
Recent Fights
- Winvs. Stephen Thompson (UFC 302): Rakhmonov defeated former title challenger Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson via submission in the second round. With a torn ankle ligament, Rakhmonov’s relentless pressure and grappling proved too much for Thompson, as he secured a rear-naked choke.
- Win vs Geoff Neal (UFC 285): In one of the year’s most thrilling fights, Rakhmonov submitted Neal via a standing rear-naked choke in the third round. Despite absorbing significant damage, Rakhmonov’s pressure and resilience shone through, proving he can thrive in chaos.
- Win vs Neil Magny (UFC on ESPN): Rakhmonov dominated Magny, submitting him in the second round. This fight highlighted his superior grappling and ability to control opponents on the ground.
- Win vs. Carlston Harris (UFC Fight Night): A spinning wheel kick followed by ground-and-pound secured an early finish for Rakhmonov, showcasing his unorthodox striking and power.
Strengths
- Versatility: Rakhmonov is a true mixed martial artist, equally dangerous on the feet and the ground. His ability to transition between striking and grappling keeps opponents guessing.
- Finishing Ability: With a 100% finish rate, Rakhmonov has proven he can end fights from any position, whether through submissions or knockouts.
- Durability: Rakhmonov has shown he can absorb punishment and keep moving forward, as evidenced in his war with Geoff Neal.
The Matchup
Striking
Garry holds a slight edge in pure striking technique. His ability to maintain distance and pick opponents apart from the outside could frustrate Rakhmonov, who prefers to close the distance and brawl when necessary. However, Rakhmonov’s power and creativity make him a threat, particularly with spinning attacks and wild flurries.
Grappling
This is where Rakhmonov has a clear advantage. His grappling is relentless, and he can seamlessly chain wrestling with submissions. Garry’s takedown defence will be tested like never before. If Rakhmonov can get the fight to the ground, his chances of securing a submission or dominating positionally increase significantly.
Cardio
Both fighters have excellent cardio, but this five-round fight could favour Garry slightly due to his ability to fight at a measured pace. However, Rakhmonov’s ability to finish fights quickly might negate this advantage if he can impose his will early.
Mentality
Garry’s confidence is often interpreted as arrogance, but it fuels his performances and keeps him calm in high-pressure situations. On the other hand, Rakhmonov’s stoic nature gives him a cold, calculated approach that has served him well so far. Both fighters are mentally tough, making this aspect a wash.
Keys to Victory
Ian Garry
- Maintain Distance: Use his reach and footwork to stay on the outside, peppering Rakhmonov with strikes and avoiding grappling exchanges.
- Leg Kicks: Target Rakhmonov’s lead leg to slow him down and hinder his ability to shoot for takedowns.
- Cardio Management: Push the pace in the later rounds to capitalize on Rakhmonov’s potential fatigue.
Shavkat Rakhmonov
- Close the Distance: Use clinch work and wrestling to drag Garry into grappling exchanges.
- Pressure Early: Test Garry’s takedown defence and confidence by setting a relentless pace.
- Mix Strikes and Takedowns: Keep Garry guessing by alternating between striking combinations and takedown attempts.
Prediction
This fight promises fireworks, with two undefeated fighters bringing contrasting styles to the Octagon. If Garry can keep the fight standing, his technical striking and movement might allow him to outpoint Rakhmonov or even secure a late TKO. However, Rakhmonov’s ability to adapt and finish fights makes him the more dangerous fighter overall. Expect Rakhmonov to eventually find a way to take the fight to the ground, where he can impose his grappling and secure a submission in the championship rounds.
Prediction: Shavkat Rakhmonov via Submission, Round 2.
Whatever the outcome, the winner will be well-prepared to challenge Belal Muhammad for the welterweight crown in what promises to be another thrilling chapter in the division’s history.
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