Stipe Miocic vs Jon Jones: The Breakdown of a “Super Fight”

The long-awaited clash between Stipe Miocic, arguably the greatest heavyweight champion in UFC history, and Jon “Bones” Jones, the former light heavyweight king and current UFC heavyweight champion, is set to occur tomorrow at UFC 309. Despite that sounding incredible and exciting, hardcore fans around the world who know the context behind this matchup with Miocic being way out of his prime and been away from the Octagon for over three and a half years and there being an interim champion in Tom Aspinall who should be fighting Jones instead, it’s left a sour taste in Saturday nights fight. That being said, we’re here to analyse what makes this bout so compelling, analysing their styles, strengths, weaknesses, and keys to victory. So lets begin.

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1. Legacy on the Line

Both Miocic and Jones are competing to cement their places as all-time greats. Miocic was a record-breaking heavyweight champion with four successful title defences and had been at the top of his division for years. Known for his toughness, work ethic, and well-rounded skills, he’s earned his reputation as a heavyweight legend. A win tomorrow would be one of the biggest upsets and one of the most legacy-defining moments in UFC history.

On the other hand, Jones has dominated the UFC for over a decade, with an unparalleled title reign at light heavyweight. Though Jones captured the heavyweight title after defeating Ciryl Gane, a win over Miocic would, in his eyes, confirm his standing as the best heavyweight in the sport despite Tom Aspinall being the interim champion and potentially the greatest mixed martial artist ever.

2. Physical Matchup: Size, Reach, and Speed

• Size and Reach: Jon Jones holds a 7-inch reach advantage over Miocic, which is significant. Known for effectively utilising his reach to keep opponents at bay and setting up strikes, Jones will likely aim to keep Miocic on the outside to avoid getting caught in close-range exchanges. However, if Miocic does get close, we’ve repeatedly seen Jon’s gruelling knees and elbows come into use when his opponent gets in close, so expect Miocic to struggle to find his timing early on.
• Speed and Agility: Both fighters possess deceptive speed for their size, though Miocic’s hand speed in close quarters and Jones’s quick footwork make this area relatively even. However, Jones’s agility in moving laterally and creating angles to throw unpredictable strikes will give him an edge.
• Durability: Miocic has weathered wars against the likes of Alistair Overeem and Daniel Cormier, but we’ve got to consider how long ago those fights were and the age of Stipe. At 42, his chin has taken lots of damage, especially in his last fight against Francis Ngannou. On the other hand, Jones has largely avoided major damage throughout his career. Though Jones is known for his fight IQ and defence, he’s shown that he can take heavy shots when he has been hit. Giving him a clear advantage in this category.

3. Fighting Styles and Tactics

Jon Jones: The Master of Distance and Versatility

• Striking: Jones’s striking style is unique, combining elements of Muay Thai, kickboxing, and unorthodox attacks like spinning elbows and oblique kicks. His reach and ability to attack from various angles make him especially dangerous.
• Wrestling and Ground Game: Jones’s wrestling is elite, with impressive takedown accuracy and an ability to control opponents on the ground. Although he has rarely needed to use it recently, Jones’ wrestling against a heavyweight grappler on Miocic’s level will be tested if the fight goes to the mat.
• Fight IQ: Jones’ most significant advantage is his intelligence inside the Octagon. He adapts quickly to his opponent’s strengths and weaknesses, often making in-fight adjustments that lead to success.

Stipe Miocic: The Resilient Boxer-Wrestler Hybrid

• Striking: Even at 42, Miocic has some of the best hands in the heavyweight division. He has accurate boxing skills, solid combinations, and finishing power. His ability to strike in combinations and counter-punch effectively makes him dangerous in close-range exchanges.
• Wrestling and Clinch Work: A former NCAA Division I wrestler, Miocic is also known for his ability to control opponents in the clinch and effectively mix in takedowns. I’m not sure if he will do that in this fight. Jones is a top-level wrestler, too, and I think Miocic may look to box the entire fight.
• Cardio and Toughness: Known for his durability, Miocic’s gas tank is one of his most underrated strengths. Miocic has shown he can push the pace even in the later rounds, which may become an advantage in the championship rounds if the fight makes it there, which, in my eyes, is highly unlikely.

4. Keys to Victory

For Jon Jones

1. Control the Distance: Jones must use his reach to keep Miocic at bay. Using his jab, oblique kicks, and leg strikes will prevent Miocic from closing in where he’s most dangerous.
2. Mix It Up: Jones’ unpredictability will be critical. Combining his striking with takedown attempts and clinch work could throw Miocic off balance and prevent him from settling into a rhythm.
3. Stay Away from Miocic’s Power: Miocic has knockout power, especially in short-range exchanges. Jones must avoid getting drawn into close-range slugfests where Miocic’s boxing could pose a threat.

For Stipe Miocic

1. Press the Action: Miocic must push the pace and close the distance on Jones. Getting in close and making it a physical fight will reduce Jones’s reach advantage.
2. Utilise His Boxing: Miocic’s edge in traditional boxing could be a difference-maker. He can overwhelm him by pressuring Jones and landing clean, accurate punches.
3. Implement a Wrestling Game Plan Too: If Miocic can take Jones down or control him for periods of each round, he could score points and tire out Jones, who is still getting used to this heavyweight body, over the rounds. It also keeps Jones from where he’s most dangerous, on the feet and top position.

5. Potential X-Factors

• Jones’s Move to Heavyweight: While Jones looked impressive in his debut at heavyweight, Miocic is a different test altogether. Can Jones’s wrestling and striking hold up against a true heavyweight who’s been in gruelling fights with elite talent?
• Miocic’s Age and Ring Rust: At 42, Miocic is entering the final chapters, if not, chapter of his career, and his time away from the Octagon may impact his timing and sharpness. Against a dynamic fighter like Jones, any lapse in speed or endurance could be costly.
• Jones’s Fight IQ and Adaptability: Jones’s ability to adapt mid-fight is almost unparalleled. Even if Miocic gets off to a strong start, Jones has shown he can make adjustments that shift the momentum in his favour.

6. Predictions and Final Thoughts

This fight is pretty easy to predict despite both guys being highly skilled. If Jones can control the distance and avoid Miocic’s powerful combinations, he’s likely to find success with his versatile strikes and reach advantage. However, Miocic’s toughness and experience against heavy hitters mean he won’t be as easy an opponent for Jones to dispatch as many believe in my books.

Ultimately, like any fight, it’ll determine which fighter can more effectively implement their game plan. For Miocic, that means a gritty, close-quarters battle. For Jones, it’s about maintaining distance and dictating the fight’s pace. With so much on the line, it will be an unforgettable showdown between two of the UFC’s greatest, but I think Jon Jones will control the fight from start to finish, winning by TKO in round two or three.