How Can Charles Oliveira Defeat Islam Makhachev at UFC 294

Former UFC Lightweight Champion, Charles Oliveira returns to the Octagon after knocking out Beneil Dariush at UFC 289 in an attempt to take his throne back from Islam Makhachev.

In their first fight, not only did Makhachev outclass Oliveira in all departments of MMA but most importantly, he beat Oliveira at his own game. Oliveira is known for his incredible forward pressure, Makhachev out-pressured him.

That pressure usually leads to Oliveira’s offensive striking, Islam out-struck him in both rounds and landed a right hook that knocked Oliveira down leading to the arm triangle finish.

Finally, he out-grappled him. The Russian looked relatively comfortable on the ground and despite Oliveira trying to set up a few triangle chokes in round one, Islam didn’t appear to be in any substantial danger, defending Oliveira’s attacks very well.

Heading into the rematch, what does Oliveira need to do to beat Makhachev?

1. Defensive Striking: This cannot be stressed enough. Oliveira has to be defensively resolute. Prior to the fight, Oliveira said he was set on knocking his foe out in round one and that was evident in his approach on the feet. He didn’t set up any of his strikes, didn’t move his head off the centre line and didn’t pick up his hands to defend adequately. It felt like a kill-or-be-killed mentality. During his entire title run, we saw “Do Bronx” fight recklessly offensively. However, since he has one of the most dangerous guards in MMA, if he was dropped, no one would follow him to the ground due to the fear of being submitted. Makhachev doesn’t have that same fear. The Dagestani trusts in his sambo-style wrestling and after having great success on the ground in the first fight, knows he can mitigate the threat Oliveira’s jiu-jitsu presents. Oliveira cannot afford to be reckless and get knocked down because Makhachev will capitalise.
2. Respect Islam’s Striking: One thing that many fighters do is underestimate how good of a striker Islam Makhachev is. This is most likely due to his biggest weapon being his wrestling. However, Islam is an explosive athlete who has the ability to knock fighters out with one punch, as he did to Gleison Tibau. His defence is solid. He tucks his chin, keeps a high guard and knows when to time his counter shots pretty well. We saw him catch Alexander Volkanovski multiple times as the Australian tried to close the distance in their title bout at the start of the year. At UFC 294, the Brazilian needs to respect what’s coming back at him or the same thing will happen again.
3. Avoid Sitting in Guard: In the majority of his fights, it’s great that Oliveira pulls guard and his opposition refuses to go down with him, however, in this rematch, he cannot afford to pull or sit in guard because Islam’s top pressure is incredible and is weary of the different submissions Charles can pull off his back. In the first fight, Charles threatened a leg lock to help himself back up, he may need to use these again so he can avoid staying on his back for too long.

Doing these three things will definitely give the former champion a better chance of defeating Makhachev and provide a closer fight than their first.